AGP Executive Report

Internet Restoration: Iranians started regaining internet access after nearly 90 days offline, but reports say speeds are slow and platforms like YouTube and Instagram remain heavily restricted. Cybersecurity & APTs: ESET’s latest APT Activity Report (Oct 2025–Mar 2026) says China-aligned groups stayed most active, targeting maritime, energy, government bodies, and advanced tech, while Iran-linked activity focused on Israel and destructive tooling. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Fresh US strikes near Bandar Abbas and drone interceptions kept the ceasefire fragile, while the US sanctioned Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority over alleged toll extortion tied to IRGC revenue. Defense Readiness: A new analysis warns US munitions used in the Iran war could take years to replenish, raising concerns about future readiness. Energy Shock: Oil jumped as attacks flared, while Asian markets slid; the Hormuz squeeze continues to ripple through global prices and inflation. Missile Site Recovery: Satellite-based reporting says Iran is clearing access points at missile sites during the ceasefire, using debris removal to restore launch readiness. Markets & Crypto: Crypto markets plunged again after renewed strikes, with Bitcoin slipping below $73,000 amid risk-off sentiment.

Strait of Hormuz Watch: Oil slid sharply as reports said Hormuz could reopen within a month, with Iran claiming a draft framework and the White House calling it false—markets stayed nervous about renewed strikes and inflation. AI & Markets: Wall Street hovered near record highs as AI-linked chip names and big tech kept momentum, even while energy prices eased. AI in Culture: Tribeca will premiere “Dreams of Violets,” a fully AI-generated feature inspired by Iranian civilian resistance. Cybersecurity: Israel says Iran-linked hackers are coordinating more closely and using AI to refine disinformation; separate claims tie an LA Metro breach to Iranian activity. Space Tech: NASA-linked tests showed satellites can help locate GPS jammers in Iran, supporting safer navigation planning. Defense Readiness: A new analysis warns the US needs years to replenish depleted missile and interceptor stockpiles after the Iran war. IRGC Warning: Iran’s Aerospace Force signaled any renewed aggression would trigger a stronger, different response. Energy Risk: Analysts warn prolonged Hormuz closure could severely disrupt global oil and LNG flows.

Middle East Flashpoint: As US-Iran ceasefire talks stay fragile, Iran warns of “gross violation” after fresh US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel escalates in Lebanon—turning the region into a high-stakes pressure cooker ahead of June 2–3 negotiations. Markets & Energy Shock: Oil rebounds toward $100 as reopening hopes wobble; policymakers are again wrestling with inflation risk, currency strain, and energy bills—while UK households brace for a 13% Ofgem price-cap jump from July. AI-Led Risk Appetite: Despite the war noise, Wall Street and parts of East Asia keep hitting records on AI momentum (Micron’s $1T milestone, SK Hynix surge), though Europe’s upside looks capped by energy-hit earnings expectations. Cyber Security Alarm: GCHQ’s chief warns Russia is “relentlessly” targeting UK and allied infrastructure and public trust, urging faster defenses as AI accelerates threats. Local Tech Impact: Iran’s internet blackout shows signs of partial return after months—an early sign that connectivity control is becoming part of the broader conflict economy.

Markets Surge Despite Iran Strikes: US “self-defence” strikes hit Iranian missile sites and mine-laying boats in Hormozgan, with Iran calling it a “gross violation” of the ceasefire—yet Wall Street shrugged it off, pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record closing highs as AI optimism stayed in control and Micron crossed $1T after UBS lifted its target. Energy Shock Watch: Brent jumped back toward $100 as Hormuz risk flared again, while oil volatility kept inflation and consumer pressure front and center. Cyber Front: An Iran-linked campaign is blamed for the LA Metro payment disruption, with researchers saying the “hacktivist” claim was a Tehran cover. Connectivity Twist: After an 88-day blackout, Iran restored internet access for some users, but governance fights are still spilling into the courts. Tech Spending Signals: USDA’s $300M Palantir deal for farm services adds to the week’s theme: governments are leaning on data platforms even as geopolitics stays messy.

Iran-US Talks: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a deal to end the Iran war could “take a few days,” after Washington carried out “self-defense” strikes in southern Iran, while Iran’s foreign ministry says progress was made on many topics in a 14-point framework but that a quick end to the fighting isn’t guaranteed. Key Sticking Points: Both sides are still wrestling over nuclear demands, sanctions relief, and the release of frozen Iranian assets, with a reported 60-day ceasefire extension and steps toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Fresh attacks and uncertainty are keeping oil and safe-haven demand jumpy, lifting gold and pressuring markets even as negotiators talk in Doha. Markets & Tech Spillover: Risk appetite improved in some places on deal hopes, but bond yields and oil volatility remain a headwind; meanwhile, the week also kept spotlight on internet access disruptions and cyber activity tied to the conflict. Regional Diplomacy: China-Pakistan ties got fresh emphasis as Beijing praised mediation efforts linked to the Iran talks.

Internet Reconnect: Iran’s president ordered the restoration of international internet access after nearly 87 days of near-total blackout, with authorities saying the change takes effect Tuesday—after earlier partial returns and a reimposed cut during renewed US-Israel strikes. Iran-US Deal Drumbeat: Markets surged as Trump said talks with Iran were “proceeding nicely,” while Iran said progress exists but a final deal isn’t imminent; key sticking points still center on nuclear issues and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Energy Shock Relief: Oil slid back below $100 as optimism grew that Hormuz shipping could resume, easing inflation pressure fears. Diplomacy Pressure: Trump also urged Arab states to sign the Abraham Accords as part of any Iran peace framework, escalating the political conditions around negotiations. AI Ethics Clash: Pope Leo XIV released an AI encyclical calling for AI to be “disarmed” from domination and war use, adding fresh moral pressure to the tech regulation debate. Regional Tensions: Israel said it struck Hezbollah sites in Lebanon as Netanyahu vowed to “increase the blows,” even while ceasefire hopes and Hajj preparations continue.

US-Iran Deal Momentum: Markets are rallying on fresh optimism that Washington and Tehran are close to ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump’s “no rush” message is keeping traders cautious—oil slid below $100 (Brent ~$97.8), while the dollar softened and risk appetite returned. Asia Tech Surge: Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped above 65,000 for the first time, lifted by hopes for Hormuz reopening and renewed AI/semiconductor buying. Energy Shock at Home: The Iran-war spillover is still hitting households—UK energy price caps are forecast to rise by £200+ from July, with analysts tying the pain to the conflict’s disruption. AI Governance Clash: Pope Leo XIV released his first major AI encyclical, urging governments to slow AI development, tighten oversight, and warn that AI is fueling misinformation and warfare. Regional Security Crackdown: Bahrain sentenced nine people to life for alleged collaboration with the IRGC, underscoring how the conflict’s shadow is spreading beyond the battlefield. Tech Funds Positioning: Goldman Sachs says hedge funds are piling into tech—especially AI-linked semiconductors—at near-record levels as investors bet on a post-war normalization.

US-Iran Deal Whiplash: The US says a framework for ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz is “largely negotiated,” but Trump also warns negotiators “not to rush,” with no signing expected Sunday and key details still being debated. Nuclear Sticking Point: Reports say Iran would surrender highly enriched uranium and the US would ease sanctions and unfreeze some assets, yet Iran has not publicly committed—and Pezeshkian stresses any deal needs Supreme Leader approval. Hormuz, Shipping, and Costs: Reopening could start easing the energy shock, but analysts note recovery for prices and logistics may take weeks or months. Regional Friction: Israel’s leaders and US lawmakers are split—some call it a catastrophe, others back a short-term deal as Americans face $5+ gas and fertilizer pain. Tech/Defense Supply Chain: Separate reporting claims Iran used UAE-linked channels to buy Chinese satellite equipment tied to its drone program, underscoring how the conflict keeps feeding new capabilities.

US-Iran Deal Signals: Marco Rubio’s India trip is turning into a countdown. He hinted “significant progress” on an Iran framework that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore maritime traffic toward pre-war levels, while Trump says an agreement is “largely negotiated” and subject to finalisation. Iran’s embassy in New Delhi pushed back hard on Rubio’s nuclear remarks, repeating Tehran’s “peaceful” stance and rejecting demands to hand over highly enriched uranium. Energy & Markets: The Hormuz talks are already moving oil expectations and investor mood, with analysts flagging volatility if shipping access and sanctions relief don’t land cleanly. India-US Tech/Trade Push: Jaishankar and Rubio also focused on expanding cooperation in trade, energy security, and critical/emerging technologies, even as visa friction for Indian travellers remains a live issue. Russia-China Power Play: Separate from the Iran story, Putin and Xi used their meeting to underline a tighter strategic partnership, with energy and tech cooperation front and center.

US-Iran Talks: Mediators say a 60-day extension of the US ceasefire is getting closer, with a memorandum of understanding aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz gradually, easing sanctions, and setting up later talks on Iran’s highly enriched uranium. Trump’s Next Move: Trump says the decision is “solid 50/50” on whether to resume bombing Iran, while reports claim the White House and Pentagon are preparing for possible strikes soon. Diplomacy Under Pressure: Iran’s foreign ministry says it’s finalizing the MOU and wants a wait-and-see window, as the Strait remains the core leverage point. Energy Pivot for India: Marco Rubio met PM Modi in New Delhi, warning the US won’t let Iran “hold the global energy market hostage,” and pushing US energy supplies to diversify India’s basket—plus an invitation for Modi to visit the White House. Cyber Risk: A Microsoft report flags AI-enabled social engineering and insider threats as organizations struggle to keep attackers from blending into normal digital life.

Markets & Inflation: Ned Davis Research says the Iran-driven oil spike is shifting investors from the “disinflation” playbook toward a new regime where hot inflation + lower growth can change stock leadership, with value and defensive pockets historically holding up best. Energy Pressure: Gas and fuel costs keep climbing as the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint, with analysts warning volatility will stay high while talks stay uncertain. Diplomacy Stalls: At the UN, the NPT nuclear nonproliferation talks failed again after four weeks, with Iran accusing the US and allies of “obstructionism.” US-Iran Tension: Trump met national security officials without a final call on strikes vs talks, while Iran says it has submitted a new framework proposal through mediators. Security & Tech: Reports also swirl around Iran-linked plots and ongoing cyber targeting, keeping the tech risk story tied to the wider conflict. Business Sentiment: Germany’s ifo climate index ticked up, but remains fragile—investors are still pricing geopolitical risk.

Hormuz Leverage: Iran is reportedly trying to cement long-term control of the Strait of Hormuz by pushing a joint arrangement with Oman to charge fees for “services” tied to transit, even as the U.S. insists the waterway must stay toll-free—showing how hard a peace deal will be when shipping access becomes a bargaining chip. Cyber & Finance: The Wall Street Journal says Iran-linked entities kept using Binance to move money tied to the IRGC, while U.S. scrutiny of crypto sanctions evasion keeps widening. Security Leadership Shakeup: Tulsi Gabbard resigned as U.S. director of national intelligence, with Aaron Lukas stepping in as acting chief. Fed Pressure Point: Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair as Iran-war fuel costs lift inflation and hit consumer sentiment. Tech Threats: Researchers warn Iranian hackers are posing as recruiters to lure engineers in aviation and oil into malware-laced calls. Markets Watch: Stocks rallied on cautious Iran peace-talk optimism, even as oil and rates remain volatile.

Markets & Oil: Global stocks edged up and the dollar hovered near a six-week high as investors clung to “some good signs” in US-Iran talks, but oil stayed jumpy on fears the Strait of Hormuz could stay near-closed. Defense Readiness: A new report says the US drew down a big share of its missile-defense interceptors defending Israel—raising fresh questions about whether Washington can sustain the same burden if Iran fighting resumes. UK Cost Pressure: UK retail sales fell more than expected in April as fuel prices squeezed shoppers, while UK borrowing hit a higher-than-expected £24.3bn deficit—fueling worries about the cost-of-living drag. Tech & AI Mood: European tech stocks led gains as chip optimism (including Nvidia) helped offset the Iran-war uncertainty. Energy Transition: Germany’s “world’s tallest” wind turbine project in Lusatia is rising, aiming to power thousands of homes—an energy pivot that’s getting political headwinds too. Retail Reality Check: In the US, Kroger’s new CEO says it will cut prices on thousands of products as customers buy fewer, cheaper items amid Iran-war-linked uncertainty.

Iran War Fallout: In Tehran, ordinary people say the economy was already cracking—now weeks of U.S.-Israeli strikes have turned it into daily pain: soaring prices, lost jobs, and an internet blackout that makes what comes next feel impossible to plan. Nuclear Standoff: Markets and talks keep getting whiplash as Trump says the U.S. will not allow Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium to leave, while Iran’s supreme leader orders it must stay inside the country—hardening the biggest sticking point in negotiations. Energy Shock Watch: Oil and gas remain the main transmission line to everyday life, with analysts warning renewed Middle East tensions could trigger another global price jolt; even where gas is cheaper (like Texas), the broader inflation pressure is spreading. Tech & Jobs: Europe’s tech scene is also taking hits tied to the wider crisis—Meta is set to cut hundreds of roles in Ireland, adding to Oracle’s earlier layoffs. Defense Tech: The U.S. is still tallying losses from “Epic Fury,” including dozens of aircraft and many MQ-9 drones, while NATO debates how much the U.S. will shoulder in Europe.

Markets Surge on Iran-Deal Hopes: Asian stocks jumped after Trump signaled US-Iran talks were nearing the “right answers,” easing oil and bond pressure. AI Chip Boost: Nvidia’s record quarter (revenue up 85%) reignited the tech rally, pulling up chipmakers from South Korea to Taiwan. Korea Watch: Seoul’s KOSPI surged more than 8% as Samsung averted a strike, while investors cheered Nvidia-led momentum in robotics. Energy Pressure Still Bites: Oil prices only partially recovered as Strait of Hormuz supply worries lingered, with Iran tightening control and shipping resuming unevenly. Europe Cautious: European equities slipped as investors waited for more peace-talk updates, and easyJet warned the Iran war is hitting summer bookings and fuel costs. Policy Signals: Australia’s unemployment rose to 4.5% in April, hinting the labour market is cooling as higher rates and geopolitical shocks weigh on growth. Climate Vote: The UN backed a world court climate opinion, with the US and other major emitters opposing.

White House Build-Out: Trump toured a new White House ballroom boasting an underground military hospital and a “drone empire” on the roof, with critics calling it a billionaire vanity project as the price tag reportedly doubled to $400M and Democrats attack the plan for security funding. Markets & AI: Wall Street bounced on chip optimism ahead of Nvidia’s results, while bond-yield jitters and unresolved Iran tensions kept traders jumpy. Iran War Fallout: Gas costs are still spiking for Americans, with one estimate projecting $3.5B in extra fuel spending over Memorial Day, as Strait of Hormuz fears keep oil volatile. Cyber Pressure: U.S. officials suspect Iran-linked hackers behind breaches of gas station pump systems, raising alarms about critical-infrastructure security. Diplomacy Signals: Iran and the U.S. say message exchanges continue under Tehran’s 14-point proposal, even as Trump keeps warning strikes could resume. Regional Trade: UK PM Keir Starmer announced a Gulf trade deal aimed at boosting exports and wages, though human-rights groups say it lacks protections.